CHINA’S ‘SIX-DAY DOUBLING’ RATE
HEALTH-AMNEWS247! The coronavirus has (CORONAVIRUS TRACKER) spread rapidly in each Days since 100 cases country where it has taken hold. According to the United States’ Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the doubling rate – period of time it takes for the number of cases to increase by a factor of two – is 6 to 7 days. Unless populations are able to slow that exponential growth, the caseload has the potential to overload healthcare systems very quickly.
The available data for confirmed cases does not represent the true number of cases. But using the confirmed cases as a proxy, we can see the rate of new confirmed cases outpaces the 6-day doubling period in most countries where the infection has become widespread.
THE WORST OUTBREAKS
Mainland China has been Mainland Chir hardest hit so far with more than 81,000 recorded cases, but they have managed to slow the growth rate dramatically after the country put the province of Hubei on lockdown.
Italy has been on lockdown since March 10. The effects of social distancing have yet to show up in the rate of growth of the infection. Similarly, Iran has also struggled to contain the spread of the virus.
South Korea was hit the same time as Italy but its aggressive testing has managed to flatten the curve significantly, though it’s still above the 6-day rate.
COUNTRIES WITH RAPID SPREAD
Testing in the United States has been slow and the number of cases is expected to rise as testing becomes more
widespread. The US is also yet to implement aggressive travel restrictions within the country.
Germany introduced border controls beginning March 16, and started aggressive testing
much after the case rate spiked. .
Spain announced a nationwide, 15-day emergency on March 14, while all restaurants, bars and cinemas in France have been ordered shut. Both countries remain comfortably above the 6-day trajectory.
India is among the rare countries in the world that have remained much below the danger-mark established by the dangerous Chinese model. With 173 cases in 18 days since the outbreak started spreading properly, India finds itself in the company of smaller city-states like Hong Kong and Singapore – both of which one were quick to apply lessons they had learnt from the 2003 SARS outbreak.
- GLOBAL DEATH-9,358
- GLOBAL CASES 235,404
WORST HIT NATIONAL
COUNTRY DEATH CASES
- ITALY 3,405 41,035
- CHINA 3,245 81,155
- IRAN 1,284 18,407
- SPAIN 803 17,395
- FRANCE 243 9,058